Combat use in Ukraine can build the record NATO buyers look for. Shield AI flew more than 130 sorties in Ukraine, and in March 2026 it raised funding at USD 12.7 billion.
European defence stocks were repriced after 2022. A European aerospace and defence index stood at 856 points before the invasion and at 2,815 in September 2026.
Rearmament budgets drove much of the growth at Saab and Rheinmetall. Ukraine can add combat proof on top.
Ukraine gives 2 kinds of return: Ukrainian revenue, and proof that pays elsewhere. Each needs its own budget, team and timeline.
Many companies first look at Ukraine for the mission: to help defend democracies and shared values. Where the need is real, the business case usually is too. The companies that do best there bring the most value to the people who use their products.
Ukraine changes a defence manufacturer's numbers in 3 places: time to first contract, the value of combat proof and access to approved budgets.
Our research covers foreign companies that entered Ukraine up to July 2026. Here is what their numbers show, and where they need care.
Western procurement asks a vendor to survive 1 to 2 years between a demo and a long-term government programme. The vendor usually funds its own production until then.
Ukraine works the other way.
US and EU | Ukraine | |
Prototype to first contract | 1 to 2 years | Weeks once verified and listed |
Who funds production before payment | The vendor | Advance payments for effective drone manufacturers |
Who decides | Programme offices in multi-year cycles | A unit selects, a brigade commander approves, the agency pays |
Feedback | Test ranges, months apart | Units in combat, days apart |
For a large company, this is a faster channel. For a venture-funded vendor, it is often the only market it can actually reach.
Here are 4 companies active in Ukraine. The table compares 2021, the last full year before the invasion, with 2025. Each row is one metric from one source.
Company | Metric | 2021 | 2025 |
Saab | Net sales | SEK 39.2bn | SEK 79.1bn |
Saab | Order backlog | SEK 105.2bn | SEK 274.5bn |
Saab | Market value, year end | USD 3.25bn | USD 31.0bn |
Rheinmetall | Sales | EUR 5.7bn | EUR 9.9bn |
Rheinmetall | Order backlog | EUR 24.5bn | EUR 63.8bn |
Rheinmetall | Market value, year end | EUR 3.59bn | EUR 71.6bn |
Kongsberg | Revenue | NOK 27.4bn | NOK 58.6bn |
Kongsberg | Order backlog | NOK 49.5bn | NOK 157.4bn |
Kongsberg | Market value, year end | NOK 50.4bn | NOK 227.5bn |
Shield AI | Valuation | USD 2.7bn, October 2023 | USD 12.7bn, March 2026 |
Sales and backlog come from the companies' annual reports. Market values come from CompaniesMarketCap for Saab and StockAnalysis for Rheinmetall and Kongsberg. Shield AI is private and does not disclose revenue, so the table shows its funding rounds.
2 notes on the bases. Rheinmetall's 2021 figures include its civilian automotive business, about a third of sales. Kongsberg's 2025 figures still include Kongsberg Maritime, which became a separate listed company in April 2026.
How each company works with Ukraine:
Saab: its NLAW anti-tank weapons have been in Ukrainian use since 2022.
Rheinmetall: a joint venture in Kyiv since October 2023, and a repair hub in western Ukraine since June 2024.
Kongsberg: its NASAMS air defence systems were in Ukrainian service by June 2023. In June 2025 it signed memoranda with 2 Ukrainian companies and announced a permanent office in Kyiv.
Shield AI: in Ukraine since June 2024, with engineers on the ground.
NATO allies committed to spend 5 percent of GDP a year on defence and security by 2035, with at least 3.5 percent on core defence. The EU set up SAFE, a EUR 150 billion loan programme for joint defence purchases.
The STOXX Europe Total Market Aerospace & Defense index stood at 856 points on 23 February 2022, the day before the full-scale invasion. On 17 September 2026 it stood at 2,815.
So we do not credit these valuations to Ukraine alone. Rearmament budgets drove much of the growth at Saab and Rheinmetall.
What Ukraine can add, company by company:
Shield AI put engineers in Ukraine and spent about 8 months reworking its V-BAT against jamming. By April 2025 it had flown more than 130 sorties. In February 2026, the US Air Force selected it as a mission-autonomy provider for its Collaborative Combat Aircraft programme. It raised funding at USD 12.7 billion 6 weeks later.
Saab signed a SEK 24.6 billion contract on 30 June 2026 for 16 Gripen E fighters for Ukraine. The buyer is Sweden's procurement agency, FMV.
Recorded Future gave Ukrainian agencies access worth more than USD 10 million. Mastercard agreed to buy the company for USD 2.65 billion in September 2024 and closed the deal in December 2024.
Tekever, a Portuguese and British drone maker, says its drones have flown more than 50,000 operational hours in Ukraine since 2022. In September 2026, it announced the first close of a USD 580 million round at a USD 6.4 billion valuation.
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A market that grew fast and still has room.
In February 2022, 7 Ukrainian companies made drones. In 2026, about 500 do. In 2025, Ukraine could produce about USD 35 billion of defence goods. Funded demand was about USD 16 billion.
The rest is open to partner funding and export, and the EU now lets member states fund production sited in Ukraine.
Demand can continue after the fighting stops. The World Bank, the European Commission, the UN and Ukraine's government put recovery needs at almost USD 588 billion over the next decade. That includes almost USD 28 billion for clearing explosive hazards and debris. Demining uses drones, autonomy and data platforms.
Our research sorts foreign entrants on 2 axes.
I. Ukraine as a market. You build a Ukrainian revenue line: a local company, local production and Ukrainian contracts. Quantum Systems took this route. Rheinmetall is building it through its joint venture.
II. Ukraine as a proving ground. You put the product in combat conditions, rework it and sell the proof in NATO markets. Recorded Future created value this way, and Shield AI started here.
Both return value. They need different budgets, teams and timelines.
Proof has a shelf life. Its value falls as competitors collect the same evidence. The companies that kept their lead turned proof into something lasting: local production, a place inside the customer's systems, or an exit.
For the budget of each route, read How to Enter the Ukrainian Defence Market in 2026.
Our research shows valuations rising at companies active in Ukraine. It also shows rearmament budgets driving much of that growth. Ukraine's clearest effect is combat proof.
Because a verified and listed product can win a first order within weeks, and effective drone manufacturers can get advance payments. In the US and the EU, the same step usually takes 1 to 2 years.
Recovery needs are estimated at almost USD 588 billion over the next decade. Demining, border security and infrastructure protection use the same product lines.
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